Оцінювання ефективності стратегій підприємства методами сценарного аналізу

Abstract

Розроблено механізм оцінювання ефективності стратегії, що на відміну від існуючих дасть змогу врахувати множинний характер їх формування. Запропоновано до застосування матрицю вибору стратегії за допомогою застосування методик сценарного аналізу, що передбачає багатоваріантний та моноваріантний підходи до формування стратегій, а також методику, що дає змогу отримати об’єктивну оцінку ефективності стратегії врахуванням сценаріїв розвитку підприємства.The mechanism of estimation of enterprise strategy efficiency by means of application of a scenario method of the economic analysis is offered. The use of methods of the scenario method for the needs of the analysis of enterprise strategy efficiency is substantiated. A comparison of the advantages and disadvantages of these methods, the potential for their application in the field of evaluating the effectiveness of enterprise strategies at the stage of development, implementation and analysis of results. The procedure is developed, the sequence of stages of a technique of an estimation of efficiency of strategies of the enterprise by means of formation and research of scenarios of its development is offered and substantiated. Based on the research and detailed analysis of all the variety of methods of scenario analysis, a mechanism for evaluating the effectiveness of the strategy has been developed, which, in contrast to the existing ones, will allow taking into account the multiple nature of their formation. These include the following stages: study of factors of internal and external environments of the enterprise in order to predict events that may affect the development and operation of the enterprise; analysis of events and probabilities of their occurrence; research of mutual influence of events and forecasting of their possible influence on activity and development of the enterprise; formation of the scenario or system of scenarios of development of the enterprise taking into account probabilities of occurrence of events; choice of enterprise strategy; definition and analysis of the effectiveness of the strategy depending on the value of the integrated indicator of the probability of implementation of the chosen development strategy; choice to implement the company’s strategy. The purpose of the proposed method is to obtain an objective assessment of the effectiveness of the company’s strategy, taking into account the influence of external and internal factors. The proposed methodology will allow to evaluate the effectiveness of the company`s strategy through the formation and study of scenarios for its development, which will increase the flexibility, dynamism and effectiveness of the strategy.