Дослідження експортного потенціалу зернової промисловості України в умовах війни

Abstract

Досліджено роль та місце України на світовому ринку зерна, ідентифіковано вплив війни на обсяги виробництва та експорту зернових культур в Україні, розкрито роль експортного потенціалу зернової промисловості в умовах війни. Окреслено склад- ники кон’юнктури українського ринку зерна, зокрема зосереджено увагу на аналізі ди- наміки цін на зернові культури та чинники, які на неї впливають; виявлено основні перешкоди розвитку ринку зерна в умовах війни. До основних чинників протидії роз- витку експортного потенціалу зернової промисловості належать такі: зменшення посів- них площ, блокування морських шляхів, заборона транзиту через низку європейських країн. Запропоновано систему заходів щодо подальшого розвитку виробництва та екс- порту зернових культур з України.

The purpose of the study is to investigate the state and tender development of the Ukrainian grain market in terms of unlocking the export potential of the Ukrainian grain industry, given the need to restore logistics supply chains for export-oriented grain flows in the face of blocked land and water transport corridors. The objectives of the study were: ● To analyse the grain market conditions in terms of grain exports from Ukraine; ● Identification of bottlenecks in grain exports via logistics routes, including the “grain corridor” from July 2022 to the present; ● Identification of the export potential of grain cargoes from Ukraine and determination of further development of grain production and export. To achieve the purpose of the study, a set of scientific methods was used to ensure the conceptual integrity of the study, in particular: systemic – to highlight the conceptual foundations of identifying factors influencing the state of the grain market; dialectical logic, induction, deduction – to substantiate the directions of infrastructure support in terms of restoring the grain market; comparative and statistical analysis – to study the specifics of the functioning of the Ukrainian grain market; problemoriented – to identify the specifics of the Ukrainian grain market. The article analyses the export potential of the grain cargo market in Ukraine and Ukraine’s position in the global grain market. The author examines the impact of the war, which significantly limited grain production and affected the country’s grain export potential due to a decrease in grain planting areas, damage to super- and infrastructure facilities, and obstacles to freight transportation, including the blockade of the Black Sea ports. The author substantiates the task of increasing the export potential for the needs of restoring the logistics supply chains of export-oriented goods through safe, cost-effective water corridors and the need for political influence of stakeholders at the macro level to restore water and land corridors for the export of goods. The conclusions and practical recommendations provided can be used by the counterparties of the Ukrainian grain market in assessing the export potential of the Ukrainian grain industry. The article presents data that identify the situation on the Ukrainian grain market in terms of assessing the potential of export-oriented grain cargoes during the war, which has a significant impact on the safety of transportation across water and land borders.