Дослідження динаміки міграційних процесів та соціоекономічного становища тимчасово переміщених українців у Польщі

Abstract

Проаналізовано динаміку руху та чинники впливу на формування потреб тимчасово переміщених осіб під час війни з урахуванням досвіду стейкхолдерів щодо міграційних процесів у світі. Ідентифіковано структуру імміграційної активності за 2014–2022 рр. Виконано аналіз руху міждержавних мігрантів у системі міграційних зв’язків у 2019–2021 рр., визначено короткострокову динаміку активності прикордонного руху між Україною і Польщею під час війни 2022 р. Здійснено оцінювання посегментної структури сектору трудової міграції. Запропоновано три напрями політики повернення мігрантів: стимулювання, інституційне сприяння поверненню, реінтеграція.

Objective. The purpose of this study is to analyse the migration situation between Poland and Ukraine that has emerged since 2022 as a result of the full-scale invasion, to get acquainted with the integration of Ukrainians abroad and to assess their intentions to return home. Methodology. A systematic method was used to study the dynamics of displacement and the factors influencing the formation of the needs of temporarily displaced persons during the war, taking into account the experience of stakeholders in migration processes in the world. The statistical method of research was used to identify the statistical features of Polish immigration before the active phase of the war in Ukraine (2014–2022) After processing the statistical data, a visual and graphical method was used to construct the Table 1–3 and Fig.1, as well as making certain mathematical calculations, in particular, migration growth was calculated as the difference between the number of people who arrived and left the country and their share in Poland in relation to the world figures (Table 2). The hypothetical-deductive method was used to make certain assumptions about the plans of Ukrainian citizens to return home based on recent studies. The method of generalisation was used to formulate conclusions about the specifics of migration activities and policies to encourage return. Conclusions. The consequences of the Russian war in Ukraine affect not only the Ukrainian but also the global economy. Poland, as a country with a common border with Ukraine, immediately took the necessary measures. Ukrainians have the right to official residence in Poland, free treatment in public healthcare facilities and the right to secondary education for children, as well as permission to stay legally in the country until the end of martial law in Ukraine. Young people are adapting to life abroad, as evidenced by employment rates (78 % of those surveyed by the National Bank of Poland are employed or actively looking for work). The predominance of Ukrainians among migrants who stayed in Poland until 24 February 2022 (1.35 million people) somewhat simplified the adaptation of those Ukrainian citizens who were forced to find themselves abroad. Negative social factors include: living expenses exceeded expectations, Ukrainians had to live in conditions that did not match their negative lifestyle. Citizens of Ukraine with higher education were forced to work in low-paid jobs, which often demotivated and stopped qualified people from professional development. It was found that Ukrainians are interested in living and working in Ukraine. The Ukrainian state authorities should raise the issue of returning the able-bodied population to their homes in detail and explain the need for this political action. The leadership of this state should take into account the experience of other countries and express it in actions that are acceptable to Ukrainian society. It is necessary to take as a basis the policy of interest, facilitating return and ensuring reintegration. Practical implications. The analysis conducted in this research paper will help to better understand the life of Ukrainian refugees abroad, in particular in Poland. An assessment of the employment situation and the factors that influence it will help in further research to apply the necessary measures to return the able-bodied population to Ukraine.