Оцінювання фінансової стійкості банківської системи України в умовах зовнішніх збурень

Abstract

Обчислено інтегральний показник фінансової стійкості банківської системи Укра- їни за період 2020-2023 рр. з використанням методу таксономічного аналізу та пруденцій- них нормативів для банківської системи. Охарактеризовано чинники впливу на фінан- сову стійкість банківської системи в досліджуваному періоді. Виокремлено основні ме- тоди і важелі, які НБУ використав для забезпечення фінансової стійкості під час пандемії COVID-19 та від початку повномасштабної війни, зокрема зміна облікової ставки; вве- дення низки обмежень та лімітів із подальшим їхнім послабленням.In the conditions of deepening the processes of European integration, the article analyses the main foreign trade partners of Ukraine. In order to study trends in changes in foreign trade during the period of martial law (ongoing period since 24 February 2022), the article uses 3 analytical periods: 1st quarter 2020, 1st quarter 2022, 1st quarter 2024. Cluster analysis implemented in SPSS from IBM was used to form groups of foreign trade partners of Ukraine in the EU. Clustering was performed using Ward's method, which assumes the distance between clusters as the sum of the squares of the Euclidean distances from individual observations of each cluster to this cluster mean, which ensures the detection of closely spaced clusters. During the studied period, Poland and Germany belong to the group of the largest foreign trade partners of Ukraine in the EU. Spain, Italy and the Netherlands are included in the second group of countries in terms of the volume of foreign trade operations, which, however, in the 1st quarter in 2022, due to Ukraine's restrictions on foreign trade, the volume of export-import operations with Ukraine was reduced in to cluster 3 (Romania, Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Lithuania, France, Hungary). Cluster 4 is characterized by the lowest volume of export-import transactions with Ukraine, and it includes the last group of countries (Sweden, Malta, Portugal, Latvia, Ireland, Greece, Croatia, Luxembourg, Cyprus, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Slovenia). In terms of resuming the activity of domestic enterprises, which was suspended since the beginning of the war, the adaptability of the Ukrainian economy, changes in global supply chains and their final reorientation to EU countries, in the 1st quarter 2024, the distance between foreign trade indicators of Ukraine and individual EU countries increased. This led to the division of cluster 2 into two groups of countries: cluster 2.1 (Spain, Italy, the Netherlands, Romania), cluster 2.2 (Greece, the Czech Republic, France, Slovakia, Bulgaria). This provides grounds for the development of trade relations with EU countries, sectoral integration into the EU Internal Market, etc.