Емпіричне дослідження потенціалу інвестування у креативні індустрії в Україні

Abstract

Проведено емпіричне дослідження впливу зміни обсягів інвестицій у креативні індустрії на обсяги валового продукту, створеного креативними індустріями. Проведено кореляційно-регресійний аналіз та економіко-математичне моделювання цього впливу та підтверджено гіпотези щодо його статистичної значущості. На основі побудованої багатофакторної лінійної моделі було здійснено прогнозування обсягів валового продукту креативних індустрій на 2017–2020 рр. залежно від обсягів інвестицій у креативні індустрії та підтверджена доцільність збільшення обсягів цих інвестицій.

In this paper the empirical research of the impact of the changes in the volume of investments in creative industries on the gross product of creative industries is performed. Overall, creative industries show rapid development all over the world. Between 2003 and 2012, the volume of trading of creative goods and services rose by more than 80 per cent. The most rapid development of the creative industries is typical for developing economies. However, in case of Ukraine, the share of creative economy in GDP is still low compared to the respective indicator in the majority of countries with developing economies. The one among main problems that hinder the development of creative industries in Ukraine is the lack of financial resources. For this reason, the study of the investing in creative economy in Ukraine is necessary. The purpose of this paper is to assess the potential of the increase of investments in creative industries with the aim of acceleration of their development. According to UNCTAD (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development), the creative economy include the following industries: cultural heritage (traditional culture, cultural monuments), art (fine arts, performance, music, drama), media (publishing, audiovisual production, new media), functional creative sphere (design, digital and cultural services). With respect to the volume of investments in creative economy in Ukraine, it reached its maximum, 13.4 billion UAH, in 2012. Then, the volume of investments in creative economy decreased to 5.03 billion UAH in 2014. In 2015, the volume of investments began to recover and in 2016 constituted approximately 9,5 billion UAH. In this paper the multiple linear model of the impact of the changes in the volume of investments in creative industries on the gross product of creative industries was built. The hypothesis that the relationship between the volume of investments in creative industries and the gross product of creative industries is positive and statistically significant was proved. The hypothesis that there is the relationship between the gross product of creative industries in the current year and the gross product of creative industries in previous two years was proved. The forecast of the gross product of creative industries depending on various volumes of investing in creative industries for the period between 2017 and 2020 was performed using the multiple linear model built by authors. The results of forecast showed that in case the amount of investments in creative economy will remain the same as in 2016, the gross product of creative economy in Ukraine will rise by approximately 44.8 per cent until 2020. In case the volume of investments in creative economy will rise by 50 per cent annually, the gross product of creative economy in Ukraine will rise from about 99.6 billion UAH in 2016 to approximately 336 billion UAH in 2020, that is, will increase in more than three times. The results of the empirical research of the potential of investing in creative economy in Ukraine show that the increase of the volume of investments in creative industry will facilitate significantly the development of those industries as well as will increase the gross product of creative economy. The increase of the volume of investments in creative economy will also have a positive impact on social sphere, creating workplaces for young, creative and talented people and improving the overall level of well-being.