Analysis and forecast of the environmental radioactivity dynamics based on the methods of chaos theory: general conceptions
No Thumbnail Available
Date
2016
Authors
Glushkov, Alexander
Safranov, Timur
Khetselius, Olga
Ignatenko, Anna
Buyadzhi, Vasily
Svinarenko, Andrey
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Publishing House of Lviv Polytechnic National University
Abstract
For the first time, we present a completely
new technique of analysis, processing and forecasting
of any time series of the environmental radioactivity
dynamics, which schematically is as follows:
a) general qualitative analysis of a dynamical problem,
typical environmental radioactivity dynamics (including
a qualitative analysis from the viewpoint of ordinary
differential equations, the “Arnold-analysis”);
b) checking for the presence of chaotic (stochastic)
features and regimes (the Gottwald-Melbourne’s test;
the correlation dimension method); c) reducing the
phase space (the choice of time delay, the definition
of the embedding space by the correlation dimension
methods and false nearest neighbours algorithms);
d) determination of the dynamic invariants of a
chaotic system (computation of the global Lyapunov
dimension la; determination of the Kaplan-Yorke
dimension dL and average limits of predictability
Prmax on the basis of the advanced algorithms;
e) a nonlinear prediction (forecasting) of any
dynamical system evolution. The last block really
includes new (in the theory of environmental
radioactivity dynamics and environmental protection)
methods and algorithms of nonlinear prediction such
as methods of predicted trajectories, stochastic
propagators and neural networks modeling, renormanalysis
with blocks of polynomial approximations,
wavelet-expansions etc.
Description
Keywords
environmental radioactivity dynamics, the ecological state, time series of concentrations, pollutants, analysis and prediction methods of the theory of chaos
Citation
Analysis and forecast of the environmental radioactivity dynamics based on the methods of chaos theory: general conceptions / Alexander Glushkov, Timur Safranov, Olga Khetselius, Anna Ignatenko, Vasily Buyadzhi, Andrey Svinarenko // Environmental Problems. – 2016. – Volume 1, number 2. – P. 115–120. – Bibliography: 47 titles.