Стан, динаміка та проблеми ліквідності банківської системи України

Abstract

Досліджено підходи науковців до визначення категорій “ліквідність банків” та “регулювання ліквідності банківської системи”. Здійснено ретроспективне аналізування підходів НБУ до регулювання ліквідності банківської системи та ідентифіковано використання двох основних методів. Виявлено стійкі динамічні тенденції ліквідності банківської системи у 2012–2020 рр. та ідентифіковано основні чинники, що спричиняють таку динаміку. Виявлено кризу надлишкової ліквідності банківської системи України, ідентифіковано її часові періоди, встановлено основні чинники її виникнення та їхні кількісні характеристики. Доведено непродуктивне використання високоліквідних активів банками, що зумовлено саме процесами регулювання рівня ліквідності банківської системи та використанням НБУ депозитних сертифікатів.The approaches of scientists to the definition of categories “liquidity of banks” and “regulation of the banking system’ liquidity” are investigated. A retrospective analysis of the NBU’s approaches to regulating the liquidity of the banking system was carried out and the use of two main methods used by the NBU to calculate the liquidity level of the Ukrainian banking system during the independence period was identified. Dynamic ranks of liquidity of the Ukrainian banking system and instruments of its change in 2012–2020 were constructed, stable dynamic tendencies and the main factors causing such dynamics were identified. The changes in the liquidity of the Ukrainian banking system in the periods of the financial crisis 2014–2015 are analyzed in detail, the main factors of the change in the liquidity of the Ukrainian banking system during such period are identified. It was proved that the change in approaches to the calculation of the liquidity level of the Ukrainian banking system was accompanied by the implementation of a completely new refinancing tool for banks – NBU deposit certificates. It was also proven that changing the approach to calculating the liquidity level of the Ukrainian banking system and the use of a new refinancing tool resulted in maximizing the NBU’s influence on regulating the liquidity of the Ukrainian banking system. The crisis of excess liquidity of the banking system of Ukraine was detected, its time periods were identified, the main factors of its emergence and their quantitative characteristics were presented. The unproductive use of highly liquid assets by banks has been proved, which is caused by the processes of regulating the liquidity level of the banking system and the use of NBU certificates of deposit. A sharp change in the structure and level of liquidity of the banking system in 2020 and disruption of the transformation function of the banking system were identified. In particular, banks with significant free resources (76.24 % of banks' liquidity, which is equivalent to practically 20 % of the loan portfolio), are not able (or willing) to direct these resources to finance the real economy. Thus, a violation of the NBU’s monetary policy has been identified, which puts considerable pressure on the monetary sphere, and in the event that the NBU loses control of this process, excess liquidity of banks will cause an inflation spike. Also, the liquidity surplus in the second half of 2019 – early 2020 and the imbalance of the resource base are threatening to reduce the efficiency of banks in 2020. The NBU’s methodology for regulating banking liquidity with the help of mandatory standards is investigated. The legislative regulation of bank liquidity is analyzed and changes in the methods of calculation of liquidity ratios are revealed. Based on the analysis of retrospective data, it has been shown that, despite changes in the mandatory liquidity standards, during 2014–2020 the liquidity indicators exceeded the regulatory values several times, but peak exceedances were detected in 2020, which confirms the emergence of the excess liquidity crisis in the banking system of Ukraine. Grouping of banks by liquidity level revealed that practically 50 % of banks are in the range of 150–300 % of the standard, and 23 % of banks are in the range of 300–500 % of the standard, while 24 % of banks are in the range of more than 500 % of the standard. Such a significant excess of the liquidity ratio indicates the ineffective financing of banks in the real sector of the economy and the lack of attractive directions for active operations, which threatens both economic growth and efficiency of the banking system in 2020. The research develops key recommendations for banks to prevent excessive liquidity risk.