Планування та регулювання ризиків інвестування у житлове будівництво

Abstract

Метою дослідження є розроблення теоретико-методичних та науковоприкладних засад планування та регулювання ризиків інвестування у житлове будівництво. Уточнено поняття «ризик інвестування у житлове будівництво» та побудовано модель формування цього ризику. Розвинуто методичні засади планування та підходи до групування засобів регулювання ризиків проєктів спорудження житлових будівель. Побудовано систему показників оцінювання ризикованості інвестування у житлове будівництво. Удосконалено науковопрактичні аспекти планування рівня ризику діяльності інвесторів, посередників та підрядних організацій – забудовників житла. Розроблено модель фінансування житлового будівництва. Удосконалено науково-методичний підхід до регулювання ризику інвестування у житлове будівництво на засадах відбору забудовників та об’єктів такого інвестування. Об’єктом дослідження є процес планування та регулювання ризиків інвестування у житлове будівництво. Целью исследования является разработка теоретико-методических и научноприкладных основ планирования и регулирования рисков инвестирования в жилищное строительство. Уточнено понятие «риск инвестирования в жилищное строительство» и построена модель формирования этого риска. Развиты методические основы планирования и подходы к группировке средств регулирования рисков проектов строительства жилых зданий. Построена система показателей оценки рискованности инвестирования в жилищное строительство. Усовершенствованы научно-практические аспекты планирования уровня риска деятельности инвесторов, посредников и подрядных организаций – застройщиков жилья. Разработана модель финансирования жилищного строительства. Усовершенствован научно-методический подход к регулированию риска инвестирования в жилищное строительство на основе отбора застройщиков и объектов такого инвестирования. Объектом исследования является процесс планирования и регулирования рисков инвестирования в жилищное строительство. The purpose of the study is to develop theoretical, methodological, scientific and applied basis for planning and regulating the investment risks in housing construction. The thesis consists of an introduction, three chapters, conclusions, list of sources and applications. The introduction substantiates the relevance of the thesis, defines the purpose and main objectives, subject and object, theoretical and methodological basis of the study, reflects the scientific novelty and practical significance of the results. In the first chapter "Theoretical Principles of Investment Risks Planning and Regulation in Housing Construction" the investment system in housing construction, its elements and legislation are considered; the essence and risk factors of housing construction investment are established; planning methods and investment risk regulation tools in housing construction are investigated. The definition of the concept of "investment risk in housing construction" gained further development, which identifies this concept with the threat of not obtaining the expected result in the appropriate amount and (or) in a timely manner, while paying a predetermined amount, or if the investment agreement provides for possible adjustments to these parameters, depending on the circumstances, to deviate from these agreements, which will cause direct or indirect losses to the investor, and the proposed model of such risk establishes a mechanism of relationships between the housing risks and identifies basic factors that affect it . Methodological principles of risk planning of residential construction projects have been developed, which provide a combination of normative and optimization methods, approaches to grouping, means of their regulation by allocating direct and indirect instruments (the latter are divided into legal and indicative), which provide for development and use of relevant regulations and transfer of knowledge, application skills, scientifically sound methods and models of assessment and management of investment risks to the subjects of the investment process in housing construction. In the second chapter "Investment Entities’ Risks Assessment and Planning in Housing Construction" the assessment of housing construction current state in Ukraine is performed and the information support main components of investment risk planning are identified; the risks of investing in housing construction are determined and a system of indicators for their evaluation is built; scientific and practical aspects of planning the risk level for investors, intermediaries and contractors - housing developers were improved. The system of indicators for assessing the risk of investing in housing construction was improved, which is based on a set of indicators for assessing the extent and economic consequences of each major risk event in the activities of investors, developers and intermediaries and provides an opportunity to link these risks. Scientific and practical aspects of planning the risk level for investors, intermediaries and contractors - housing developers were improved, which provide the determination of reasonable share of risk premium prices for relevant construction products based on prebuilt functions of probability distribution of expected economic benefits from the purchase of residential real estate and its construction and allow the calculation of such volumes of the residential real estate value, taking into account the risk factor, which are acceptable for the investor (intermediary) and for the developer. In the third chapter "Investment Risks Regulation in Housing Construction" the scientific and methodological approach to regulating the investment risk in housing construction on the basis of selection the developers and objects of such investment was improved; a model of housing construction financing was developed; scientific and practical bases of introduction the two-level system of mortgage crediting for maintenance of regulation process of investment risks in housing construction taking into account foreign experience were developed. A model of housing construction financing was developed, which provides the rational distribution of risks between its main participants (investors, developers, banks and insurance companies) on the basis of issuing municipal bonds with their subsequent transfer for distribution and servicing to a state or municipal bank, forming the pool of bonds, the value of which would be equal to the cost of housing, assigning the investor a specific investment object under the option agreement, and the further circulation of such pools in the mortgage securities market, which is the basis for the introduction of a twolevel mortgage system to ensure risk management of housing investment. The scientific and methodological approach to risk management of investment in housing construction was improved, which involves the selection of developers and investment objects both on the basis of retrospective assessments by assessing the business reputation of developers and the attractiveness of investment objects, and on the basis of forecasting changes in financial resources of construction companies using the regression relationship between these parameters and a summary of the expected losses of investors from the occurrence of risky events.