Оцінювання рівня розвитку країн Європи в контексті моделі сталого розвитку із застосуванням методів теорії нечітких множин

Abstract

Розглянуто методико-прикладні інструменти, які ґрунтуються на використанні теорії нечітких множин, для оцінювання досягнення цілей у контексті реалізації моделі сталого розвитку. Побудовано систему кластерів, які визначають нинішній рівень розвитку європейських країн, у системі визначеної множини довгострокових цілей. Проведено їх рейтингове оцінювання на основі розрахованої для кожної з них інтегральної оцінки. Подано модель впливу окремих індикаторів на темпи приросту валового внутрішнього продукту, яку запропоновано використовувати під час розгляду окремих сценаріїв стратегічного розвитку України.

To assess the achievement of goals in the context of implementing a sustainable development model, we are considering the methodical and applied tools based on the use of the theory of fuzzy sets and the technology of implementing the model of communication between its individual indicators, which should be used in developing scenarios of strategic development of Ukraine Topicality. In 2015, the United Nations (UN) has identified new goals for the sustainable development of the world community. This concept combines different but interrelated areas of human development, rom the protection of the environment, the impact on it of sustained economic growth to the key trends of social integration. Its implementation plays an increasingly important role in the context of defining key areas of government policy at both the national and global levels. All this requires intensive research in terms of building effective models of strategic development as separate national states and the entire world community in the context of defined strategic objectives. For a specific country, such models can be used as a tool for developing strategic development plans. The aim of the study. Identify the place of Ukraine among European states on the basis of defined indicators of the implementation of the strategy of sustainable development for goals in the branches such as science, decent work and economic growth, innovation and infrastructure, peace and justice, building a communication model between indicators, which determine the pace of socio-economic development of countries. Task. – substantiate the choice of methodical and applied tools for solving the main tasks determined by the research topic; – to allocate the main clusters (groups) of European countries at the current stage of implementation of the model of sustainable development in a certain set of purposes by means of selected methodical and applied research tools; – to determine an integral indicator for each country within the defined set of goals, build a ranking row based on those goals and estimate the place of Ukraine in it; – to construct a model of the interconnection of the system of indicators for various purposes, which essentially determine the rates of economic development of the countries and which should be used in the development of scenarios of strategic development of Ukraine. Research methods. The study we conducted is a coherent sequence of steps, each of which involves the use of specific methods for their implementation: 1) the theory of fuzzy sets is chosen as the methodological basis of the study; 2) clustering methods based on the fuzzy s-average algorithm; 3) the rating assessment of achievement of goals in the model of sustainable development is realized using the model of the fuzzy output of Mamdani; 4) construction of the model of the interconnection of the system of indicators, which are decisive in terms of the pace of economic development of countries with the help of a model of fuzzy derivation of Sugeno on the basis of the existing knowledge base in the form of a system of rules whose parameters are found as the result of optimization using neural network technologies.