Mathematical modeling and optimal control strategy for the monkeypox epidemic
| dc.citation.epage | 955 | |
| dc.citation.issue | 3 | |
| dc.citation.journalTitle | Математичне моделювання та комп'ютинг | |
| dc.citation.spage | 944 | |
| dc.contributor.affiliation | Університет Хасана ІІ Касабланки | |
| dc.contributor.affiliation | Університет Султана Мулая Слімана | |
| dc.contributor.affiliation | Hassan II University of Casablanca | |
| dc.contributor.affiliation | Sultan Moulay Slimane University | |
| dc.contributor.author | Ель Мансурі, А. | |
| dc.contributor.author | Смуні, І. | |
| dc.contributor.author | Хаджі, Б. | |
| dc.contributor.author | Лабзай, А. | |
| dc.contributor.author | Белам, М. | |
| dc.contributor.author | El Mansouri, A. | |
| dc.contributor.author | Smouni, I. | |
| dc.contributor.author | Khajji, B. | |
| dc.contributor.author | Labzai, A. | |
| dc.contributor.author | Belam, M. | |
| dc.coverage.placename | Львів | |
| dc.coverage.placename | Lviv | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2025-03-04T12:17:33Z | |
| dc.date.created | 2023-02-28 | |
| dc.date.issued | 2023-02-28 | |
| dc.description.abstract | У цьому дослідженні запропоновано математичну модель з дискретним часом (SEIQR), яка описує динаміку віспи мавп у людській популяції. Досліджувана популяція поділяється на п’ять компартментів: чутливі (S), заражені (E), інфіковані (І), карантиновані (Q) та одужалі (R). Також запропоновано оптимальну стратегію боротьби з поширенням цієї епідемії. У цьому сенсі використовується три елементи керування, які представляють: 1) інформованість вразливих груп через ЗМІ, громадянське суспільство та освіту; 2) карантин інфікованих осіб вдома або, якщо потрібно, у лікарні; 3) заохочення до вакцинації сприйнятливих осіб. Щоб охарактеризувати ці оптимальні керування, застосововано принцип максимуму Понтрягіна. Система оптимальності розв’язана чисельно за допомогою Matlab. Отримані результати підтверджують ефективність запропонованого оптимізаційного підходу. | |
| dc.description.abstract | In this study, we propose a discrete time mathematical model (SEIQR) that describes the dynamics of monkeypox within a human population. The studied population is divided into five compartments: susceptible (S), exposed (E), infected (I), quarantined (Q), and recovered (R). Also, we propose an optimal strategy to fight against the spread of this epidemic. In this sense we use three controls which represent: 1) the awarness of vulnerable people through the media, civil society and education; 2) the quarantine of infected persons at home or, if required, in hospital; 3) encouraging of vaccination of susceptible persons. To characterize these optimal controls, we apply the Pontryagin's maximum principle. The optimality system is solved numerically using Matlab. Therefore, the obtained results confirm the effectiveness of the proposed optimization approach. | |
| dc.format.extent | 944-955 | |
| dc.format.pages | 12 | |
| dc.identifier.citation | Mathematical modeling and optimal control strategy for the monkeypox epidemic / A. El Mansouri, I. Smouni, B. Khajji, A. Labzai, M. Belam // Mathematical Modeling and Computing. — Lviv : Lviv Politechnic Publishing House, 2023. — Vol 10. — No 3. — P. 944–955. | |
| dc.identifier.citationen | Mathematical modeling and optimal control strategy for the monkeypox epidemic / A. El Mansouri, I. Smouni, B. Khajji, A. Labzai, M. Belam // Mathematical Modeling and Computing. — Lviv : Lviv Politechnic Publishing House, 2023. — Vol 10. — No 3. — P. 944–955. | |
| dc.identifier.doi | doi.org/10.23939/mmc2023.03.944 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://ena.lpnu.ua/handle/ntb/63531 | |
| dc.language.iso | en | |
| dc.publisher | Видавництво Львівської політехніки | |
| dc.publisher | Lviv Politechnic Publishing House | |
| dc.relation.ispartof | Математичне моделювання та комп'ютинг, 3 (10), 2023 | |
| dc.relation.ispartof | Mathematical Modeling and Computing, 3 (10), 2023 | |
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| dc.relation.referencesen | [1] Durski K. N., McCollum A. M., Nakazawa Y., Petersen B. W., et al. Emergence of Monkeypox - West and Central Africa, 1970–2017. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. 67 (10), 306 (2018). | |
| dc.relation.referencesen | [2] World Health Organization (WHO). Mpox (monkeypox). https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/monkeypox (2022). | |
| dc.relation.referencesen | [3] Yan X., Zou Y. Optimal and sub-optimal quarantine and isolation control in SARS epidemics. Mathematical and Computer Modelling. 47 (1–2), 235–245 (2008). | |
| dc.relation.referencesen | [4] Likos A. M., Sammons S. A., Olson V. A., Frace A. M., Li Y., Olsen-Rasmussen M., Davidson W., et al. A tale of two clades: monkeypox viruses. Journal of General Virology. 86 (10), 2661–2672 (2005). | |
| dc.relation.referencesen | [5] Yinka-Ogunleye A., Aruna O., Ogoina D., Aworabhi N., Eteng W., Badaru S., Mohammed A., et al. Reemergence of Human Monkeypox in Nigeria, 2017. Emerging Infectious Diseases. 24 (6), 1149 (2018). | |
| dc.relation.referencesen | [6] Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Multistate outbreak of monkeypox – Illinois, Indiana, and Wisconsin, 2003. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. 52 (23), 537–540 (2003). | |
| dc.relation.referencesen | [7] Sklenovsk´a N., Van Ranst M. Emergence of monkeypox as the most important orthopoxvirus infection in humans. Frontiers in Public Health. 6, 241 (2018). | |
| dc.relation.referencesen | [8] Eteng W. E., Mandra A., Doty J., Yinka-Ogunleye A., Aruna S., Reynolds M. G., McCollum A. M., Davidson W., Wilkins K., et al. Notes from the field: responding to an outbreak of monkeypox using the one health approach - Nigeria, 2017–2018. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. 67 (37), 1040 (2018). | |
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| dc.relation.referencesen | [10] Grant R., Nguyen L. B., Breban R. Modelling human-to-human transmission of monkeypox. Bulletin of the World Health Organization. 98 (9), 638 (2020). | |
| dc.relation.referencesen | [11] Weinstein R. A., Nalca A., Rimoin A. W., Bavari S., Whitehouse C. A. Reemergence of monkeypox: prevalence, diagnostics, and countermeasures. Clinical Infectious Diseases. 41 (12), 1765–1771 (2005). | |
| dc.relation.referencesen | [12] Jezek Z., Szczeniowski M., Paluku K. M., Mutombo M., Grab B. Human monkeypox: confusion with chickenpox. Acta Tropica. 45 (4), 297–307 (1988). | |
| dc.relation.referencesen | [13] Jezek Z., Marennikova S. S., Mutumbo M., Nakano J. H., Paluku K. M., Szczeniowski M. Human monkeypox: a study of 2,510 contacts of 214 patients. Journal of Infectious Diseases. 154 (4), 551–555 (1986). | |
| dc.relation.referencesen | [14] Lai C.-C., Hsu C.-K., Yen M.-Y., Lee P.-I., Ko W.-C., Hsueh P.-R. Monkeypox: an emerging global threat during the COVID-19 pandemic. Journal of Microbiology, Immunology and Infection. 55 (5), 787–794 (2022). | |
| dc.relation.referencesen | [15] Samaranayake L., Anil S. The monkeypox outbreak and implications for dental practice. International Dental Journal. 72 (5), 589–596 (2022). | |
| dc.relation.referencesen | [16] Yinka-Ogunleye A., Aruna O., Dalhat M., Ogoina D., McCollum A., Disu Y., Mamadu I., Akinpelu A., et al. Outbreak of human monkeypox in Nigeria in 2017–18: a clinical and epidemiological report. The Lancet Infectious Diseases. 19 (8), 872–879 (2019). | |
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| dc.relation.referencesen | [19] Foster S. O., Brink E. W., Hutchins D. L., Pifer J. M., Lourie B., Moser C. R., Cummings E. C., et al. Human monkeypox. Bulletin of the World Health Organization. 46 (5), 569–576 (1972). | |
| dc.relation.referencesen | [20] Jeˇzek Z., Szczeniowski M., Paluku K. M., Mutombo M. Human monkeypox: clinical features of 282 patients. Journal of Infectious Diseases. 156 (2), 293–298 (1987). | |
| dc.relation.referencesen | [21] Cheema A. Y., Ogedegbe O. J., Munir M., Alugba G., Ojo T. K. Monkeypox: A Review of Clinical Features, Diagnosis, and Treatment. Cureus. 14 (7), e26756 (2022). | |
| dc.relation.referencesen | [22] Desenclos J.-C., De Valk H. Emergent infectious diseases: importance for public health, epidemiology, promoting factors, and prevention. M´edecine et Maladies Infectieuses. 35 (2), 49–61 (2005). | |
| dc.relation.referencesen | [23] Artois M., Caron A., Leighton F. A., Bunn C., Vallat B. La faune sauvage et les maladies ´emergentes. Rev. sci. tech. Off. int. Epiz. 25 (3), 897–912 (2006). | |
| dc.relation.referencesen | 24] Vaughan A., Aarons E., Astbury J., Balasegaram S., Beadsworth M., Beck C. R., Chand M., O’Connor C., Dunning J., Ghebrehewet S., Harper N. et al. Two cases of monkeypox imported to the United Kingdom, September 2018. Eurosurveillance. 23 (38), 1800509 (2018). | |
| dc.relation.referencesen | [25] Uwishema O., Adekunbi O., Pe˜namante C. A., Bekele B. K., Khoury C., Mhanna M., Nicholas A., Adanur I., Dost B., Onyeaka H. The burden of monkeypox virus amidst the Covid-19 pandemic in Africa: A double battle for Africa. Annals of Medicine and Surgery. 80, 104197 (2022). | |
| dc.relation.referencesen | [26] Koenig K. L., Be¨y C. K., Marty A. M. Monkeypox 2022 Identify-Isolate-Inform: A 3I Tool for frontline clinicians for a zoonosis with escalating human community transmission. One Health. 15, 100410 (2022). | |
| dc.relation.referencesen | [27] Dashraath P., Nielsen-Saines K., Mattar C., Musso D., Tambyah P., Baud D. Guidelines for pregnant individuals with monkeypox virus exposure. The Lancet. 400 (10345), 21–22 (2022). | |
| dc.relation.referencesen | [28] George L. A., Regi A. Monkey Pox: An Upcoming Threat in World; A Systematic Review. International Journal of Research Publication and Reviews. 3 (7), 2202–2206 (2022). | |
| dc.relation.referencesen | [29] Mbala P. K., Huggins J. W., Riu-Rovira T., Ahuka S. M., Mulembakani P., Rimoin A. W., Martin J. W., Muyembe J. J. Maternal and fetal outcomes among pregnant women with human monkeypox infection in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Journal of Infectious Diseases. 216 (7), 824–828 (2017). | |
| dc.relation.referencesen | [30] Antinori A., Mazzotta V., Vita S., Carletti F., Tacconi D., Lapini L. E., D’Abramo A., Cicalini S., Lapa D., Pittalis S., Puro V. Epidemiological, clinical and virological characteristics of four cases of monkeypox support transmission through sexual contact, Italy, May 2022. Eurosurveillance. 27 (22), 2200421 (2022). | |
| dc.relation.referencesen | [31] Islam Q. T. Monkeypox – A New Threat for the Globe! Journal of Medicine. 23 (2), 104–105 (2022). | |
| dc.relation.referencesen | [32] Kermack W. O., McKendrick A. G. A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series A. 115 (772), 700–721 (1927). | |
| dc.relation.referencesen | [33] Kumar A., Srivastava P. K. Vaccination and treatment as control interventions in an infectious disease model with their cost optimization. Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation. 44, 334–343 (2017). | |
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| dc.relation.uri | https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/monkeypox | |
| dc.relation.uri | https://theeagleonline.com.ng/breaking-monkey-pox-fg-confirms-only-four-cases/ | |
| dc.rights.holder | © Національний університет “Львівська політехніка”, 2023 | |
| dc.subject | дискретна математична модель | |
| dc.subject | віспа мавп | |
| dc.subject | оптимальний контроль | |
| dc.subject | принцип максимуму Понтрягіна | |
| dc.subject | discrete mathematical model | |
| dc.subject | monkeypox | |
| dc.subject | optimal control | |
| dc.subject | Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle | |
| dc.title | Mathematical modeling and optimal control strategy for the monkeypox epidemic | |
| dc.title.alternative | Математичне моделювання та оптимальна стратегія боротьби з епідемією віспи мавп | |
| dc.type | Article |
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