Advanced modeling and forecasting of pollutant concentrations temporal dynamics in the atmosphere of an industrial city (gdansk region)
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Date
2016
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Publishing House of Lviv Polytechnic National University
Abstract
In the paper we present the results of an
advanced investigation of dynamics of variations of the
atmospheric pollutants (sulphur dioxide) concentrations
in the air basins of Polish industrial cities (Gdansk
region) by using the improved non-linear prediction and
chaos theory methods. Chaotic behavior of the sulphurous anhydride
concentration time series at two sites in the city of
Gdansk has been computed. As usually, to
reconstruct the corresponding chaotic attractor, it is
necessary to determine time delay and embedding
dimension. The former is determined by the methods
of autocorrelation function and average mutual
information, and the latter is calculated by means of
the correlation dimension method and algorithm of
false nearest neighbours. Further, the Lyapunov
exponents’ spectrum, the Kaplan-Yorke dimension
and the Kolmogorov entropy and other invariants are
calculated. An existence of a low-D chaos in the
cited system is confirmed and using polynominal
algorithm with neural networks block allows making
an improved short-term forecast of the atmospheric
pollutant fluctuations dynamics.
Description
Keywords
air pollution dynamics, studying and forecasting, chaos theory methods
Citation
Advanced modeling and forecasting of pollutant concentrations temporal dynamics in the atmosphere of an industrial city (gdansk region) / Alexander Glushkov, Timur Safranov, Olga Khetselius, Georgy Prepelitsa,Yuliya Bunyakova, Nataliya Bykowszczenko // Environmental Problems. – 2016. – Volume 1, number 2. – P. 105–110. – Bibliography: 39 titles.