Удосконалення методу оцінювання ризиків житлового будівництва в умовах міжнародних економічних відносин

Abstract

Запропоновано комбінований метод якісно-кількісного оцінювання ризиків житлового будівництва в умовах міжнародних економічних відносин, сутність якого полягає у ідентифікації можливих видів ризиків з відбиранням найзначущіших, розрахунку їх ступеня та області, а також величини максимальних втрат, пофакторному аналізуванні параметрів, які впливають на ризик, та виявленні можливих шляхів зниження його ступеня на основі експертних оцінок та математичних залежностей. Застосування цього методу дасть змогу підвищити достовірність одержаних результатів та своєчасно відмовитися від реалізації надто ризикованих проектів.

The purpose of this paper is to develop a combined method of qualitative and quantitative risk assessment of housing construction, the use of which will improve the accuracy of the results and in a timely manner not to implement excessively risky projects. Theoretical and methodological basis of research are the fundamental provisions of economic theory, scientific works of scientists on the assessment of the risks of housing construction. In the process of research the following methods were used: graphic (visual presentation of research results); generalization; analytical and logical (to determine the impact of potential risks to development of housing construction, sources of risk, development of the combined method of risk assessment housing). The article discusses the advantages and disadvantages of applying a risk assessment of housing conditions in the international economic relations existing in the modern economic literature methods. The expediency of complex use of methods of qualitative and quantitative risk analysis of housing construction; defines the tasks of marketing of innovations at different stages of its implementation; a new approach to risk assessment of residential construction under conditions of international economic relations, is based on a complex application of methods of quantitative and qualitative risk analysis, which is called the combined method. The task of qualitative risk assessment is to allocate the risk factors to identify possible risk groups and the stages at which they may occur, assess their risk, that is, to determine potential areas of risk. Quantitative risk analysis is the numerical determination of the size of the individual risks.Each enterprise should work in such a way to smooth out the destructive effects of both external and internal risk factors and take up emerging opportunities. Risk evaluation in the sphere of housing construction is a very important stage in risk management, as its underestimation can lead to losses and even to bankruptcy of the investor, whereas the revaluation to profits. Analysis of works of domestic and foreign scholars on risk assessment of residential construction in the conditions of international economic relations has revealed that today’s disparate methods of risk assessment of housing make it impossible to determine the precise magnitude of the risk taking into account the specifics of the construction industry of housing construction. The proposed combined method of qualitative and quantitative risk evaluation of housing in terms of international economic relations will allow the investor to identify possible risks by selecting the most important, to carry out calculation of their degrees and the region, and the value of the maximum losses, a factor analysis of the parameters influencing the risk, and identifying possible ways of reducing its extent on the basis of expert assessments and mathematical dependencies. The use of this method allows to increase the reliability of the results obtained and to promptly abandon too risky of a project for the financing of housing in the context of international economic relations.